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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.