How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.